Bill Clinton's visit to North Korea is an excellent diplomatic touch for the US and a political capital for Kim Jong-Il.
Comrade Kim Jong-Il languished for years to meet a High US political figure like Bill Clinton. Since his father met Madeleine Albright, he has to prove to the Korean people that he is as powerful as the "Great Leader" Kim Il-Sung to whom he dreams to emulate both in tyranny and grandeur.
The US needs to engage North Korea directly in order to ease tension on the korean peninsula for I am a strong advocate of the two-party talk for the following reasons:
1- The best timing since the Korean armistice with the president Eisenhower. Kim Jong-Il certainly like the Clintons (Not Trust) because he is also the one who sent his secretary of State Madeleine Albright
2- He likes and may be trusts his old pal Bill Richardson
3- Kim Jong-Il would certainly be willing to open a window on his country if he could get a non-aggression assurance from Barrack Obama himself.
Kim will be able to nurture his ego in front of China because the old-brother is not present to scold or influence the talk. Jong-il who is born is 1941 (according to his official biography) is older that Hu Jin Tao (December 1942). In a Confucian society, this is something of importance. Although China is considered the older Brother, its leader Hu is younger than Kim of North Korea.
Jimmy Cater in his book “Our endangered Values” (page 107) wrote that North Korean late president Kim Il-Sun responding to several years of invitations expressed his deep concern from the Chinese leaders. DPRK would prefer to take the lead on any direct and secret with the US.
I agree with most that North Korea leaders may give a positive signal one day and act erratically the next, but if the US is to get something from the North Korea a direct talk would denifitely earn a better result.
But Japan and South Korea may want to keep the six-party talk alive, something understandable, but North Korea reading the tea leave of those two countries, already assumed that both Japan and South Korea are under the US nuclear umbrella therefore why bother listening to them if there is a direct access tot he US administration.
Whatever the outcome with the US, DPRK rightly believes that the other two ccountries would follow Japan and South Korea).
Despite North Korea bellicose attitude, if we look back the past fifteen years there have been windows of opportunities to work out differences and may clear a platform on which peace could be built upon.
The Juche doctrine (Self-reliance) on which the whole ideology was built is non-existent as North Korea relies more and more on charity from South Korea , US , Japan and mainly China although, as soon as these are delivered Korean labor party (조선로동당) Joson Rodontang members a quick to put the motherland’s stamps on them.
North Korean is not on the brink of collapse because the system is sustained by the “feeding tube” of the countries she calls: The Imperialist US, the South Korea fantosh and militarist Japan. We all know these are just sounds of crying babies what else to call a country with which they are still technically at war.
North korea knows that it may loose any future war, but the dictator knows that would also mean the end of the regim, therefore, it is ready to drop the million of shells on Seoul and other south Korean major cities and even Japan just do more arm to all in the way a suicide commando terrorist would end a loosing war.
The negotitions, according to both (former) secretary Madeleine Albright and Jimmy Carter, North Korea wants to pursue direct talks (without China) and secret (TO keep a high profile) with it own people.
North Korea is looking for three discussions points (Not in order of importance)
1- No Hostile Intention – meaning no war and no subversive actions against the regim
2- Diplomatic relationships with the US
3- Reunification
Let elaborate a little bit on each of these points:
1- No Hostile Intention – In my view This is certainly the most sensitive point for North korea . It is tough in every class-room, every political meeting, every news. During the past 50 years the regim is paranoiac to anything not under the control of the system that is assuring that the country is safe oh, I should say that the Kim and team are safe and could hold onto power for centuries.
Not surprise, because the DPRK has done nothing but build a military arsenal and draft millions of young men into one of the world largest army.
I believe with people like Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter and Madeleine Albright, Bill Richardson and maybe Al Gore the US can bend North Korean leadership to execute the “1994 agreed framework” and stop building its nuclear arsenal in return for a light water nuclear reactors units supervise under US and south Korean engineers.
Kim Jong Il will be very happy to meet these honorable statemen and save face on the other hands Obama can still keep denying having sent anyone and that’s fine as North Korea would also prefer to have secret talks by denying and even broadcasting propaganda message to the korean people.
The other reason this definitely give an opportunity to the system to implode, because there are extremist core ideologues who are benefiting from the statu-quo and would never welome an overture with the west. That is also a good thing, let Kim deal with them
2- Diplomatic relationships with the US
This is only a ceremonial event to show the world that the two countries now are at peace and welcome each other.
The rest of western world without negative label may accept the North; the country would start moving positively toward the modern world.
When North Korea will gain credibility on world stage, it clean image would allow investors from South Korea, China and the rest world build the dilapidated economy.
3- Reunification
North Korea dearest dream is to get out of the grips of China. For thousands of years Korea has been vassals of the Chinese empire. Now it is time to stand to the big brother who has become rich and more arrogant toward the younger.
I must be cautious here but from my observation, the Korean people and the leadership of DPRK has a remarkable disdain for Chinese policy toward it nation.
I read recently that Hu Yaobang the 6th General Secretary of the Communist Party of China who was in office between 1982 – 1987 visited North Korea, confided to Kim Il-Sung about China’s policy before Kim’s tour to Eastern Europe in 1984. I was in my second year at Wonsan University.
Kim in return, told Eric Honneker (DDR ) East German president >.
Interesting prediction by Kim Il-Sung, we can see here that DPRK fear of the Chinese leadership to follow the true socialism course intended in the early years of the long march for which they fought and stood firmly in the 50 – 70 thought against the west.
Hundred of thousands of Chinese blood were lost to save Kim Il-sung’s regim during the Korean war June 25, 1950 – July 1953), but you would find no Chinese artifact at Pyongyang war museum or Chinese voluntary army mentioned in any of the scholar books.
Since that forced reunification, with disastrously failed, DPRK remained very worried about the outcome of any future reunified of the two Koreas.
This is a subject certainly keeping Kim Jong-il awake. The dream of reunification is genuine but with the conditions that a reunited Korea be under the leadership of 조선로동당) Joson Rodontang are remote.
Considering today’s democratic success of the South, It is largely improbable that DPRK leadership can take on a fully democratic system which is alien to its current core socialistic values.
At the beginning the system of two states/two governing bodies (Pure speculation on my part) may the best approach, until the two countries North and South dilute their 50 year venom and rebuild trust again.
I am not sure the German model would work in Korea, however I thing the EU parliamentary system may be a good option.
Reference :
a)- Madam Secretary a Memoir Madeleine Albright
b)- Our Endengered Values – President Jimmy Carter
c) Cold War International History Project : http://adjix.com/hghp